New estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention place the total number of deaths from the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus for all age groups in the United States at approximately 3,900 according to an agency teleconference on Nov. 12.

The new estimates “provide a bigger picture of what has been going on,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. These estimates are notably higher than numbers previously reported because they are based on a method of extrapolation that accounts for underreporting for reasons such as the fact that many cases of H1N1 influenza may not be laboratory confirmed, Dr. Schuchat said.

On the basis of this method, approximately 22 million cases (ranging from 14 million to 34 million), and 98,000 hospitalizations (ranging from 63,000 to 153,000) have been attributed to the H1N1 virus in the United States in the 6-month period between the emergence of the virus in April 2009 and Oct. 17, 2009, the most recent date for which data are available, Dr. Schuchat explained. The range for the approximate death rate of 3,900 is from 2,500 to 6,100, she said.

Broken down by age group, approximately 540 children from 0 to 17 years, 2,920 adults aged 18-64 years, and 440 adults aged 65 years and older have died as a result of the H1N1 virus during the first 6 months of the H1N1 pandemic in the United States.

The CDC’s Web site provides the updated numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the H1N1 virus, along with a description of the method used to estimate the numbers. Updated numbers using this method will be provided approximately every 3-4 weeks, said Dr. Schuchat.

“These numbers show how critical our vaccine recommendations are,” she said.

Dr. Schuchat noted that more H1N1 vaccine continues to be manufactured, shipped, and delivered each day, although the number of available doses still falls short of earlier expectations. “As supply increases, we think that access will improve,” Dr. Schuchat said.

Dr. Schuchat also emphasized the need for vaccination of individuals in the CDC’s designated priority groups. In recognition of American Diabetes Month, she highlighted the increased risk of complications from the H1N1 flu in individuals with diabetes. Approximately 19% of American adults who have been hospitalized with the H1N1 virus have had diabetes, and one in four of these patients required ICU care, said Dr. Schuchat. She encouraged individuals with diabetes to get the H1N1 vaccine injection, not the spray, as soon as possible.

It’s too early to compare deaths in the current H1N1 pandemic to previous pandemics, Dr. Schuchat said. “We have a long flu season ahead of us,” she said, but added that “what we are seeing so far is nowhere near the severity of the 1918 pandemic.”

For the latest numbers on H1N1 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, as well as vaccine availability updates, visit cdc.gov/h1n1flu.

Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Global Medical News. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

据11月12日美国疾病预防控制中心(CDC)的一个电话会议称，CDC对美国所有年龄段因甲型H1N1流感死亡的人数作出了新的估计，大约有3,900人死亡。

 

CDC 的免疫和呼吸系统疾病国家中心主任Anne Schuchat博士说，新的估计“对正在发生的情况给出了更全面的呈现。” Schuchat博士说，这些估计明显高于原来的报道，因为新的估计是根据一种外推法，把那些因为种种原因未被报道的病例也考虑在内。 这些原因包括许多H1N1流感可能未被实验室证实等。

 

Schuchat博士解释说，根据这一方法，从现有的最新数据看，从2009年4月到2009年10月17日的6个月期间，在美国大约有220万个病例(介于140万到340万之间)和98,000名入院患者(介于63,000到153,000之间)是由于感染H1N1流感所致。据她说，3,900例的预计死亡人数是介于2,500到6,100之间。

 

按年龄分组细化，大约540名0~17岁的儿童，2,920名18~64岁的成年人以及440名65岁及以上的老人在美国最初6个月的H1N1流行期间死于H1N1病毒感染。

 

CDC网站提供了最新的与H1N1病毒相关的病例数、入院人数以及死亡人数。同时还提供对估算这些数字所用方法的描述。Schuchat博士说，大约每3到4周会提供一次根据该方法估算出的最新数字。

 

她说，“这些数字显示，我们的疫苗接种建议是多么重要。”

 

Schuchat博士提到虽然可用的疫苗量低于先前的预期，每天还是有更多的H1N1疫苗源源不断地被生产、运输和交付使用。“由于供货量增加，我们认为供给会改善，”Schuchat博士说。

 

Schuchat博士同时还强调了CDC指定的优先接种人群接种疫苗的必要性。在美国糖尿病月到来之际，她特别强调了糖尿病患者感染H1N1流感后并发症的风险增高。Schuchat博士说，大约19%的患H1N1病毒感染住院的美国成年人患有糖尿病，这些人中每4个就有1个需要重症监护。她鼓励糖尿病患者尽快接受H1N1疫苗接种注射而不是喷雾剂。

 

Schuchat博士说，将这次H1N1流行的死亡率和以往流行做比较为时尚早。“前面还有一个漫长的流感季节等着我们，”她说。不过她补充道，“我们目前所看到的严重程度还远远比不上比1918年的大流行。”

 

有关最新的H1N1病例、住院和死亡例数，以及可用疫苗数量，请浏览网站cdc.gov/h1n1flu。

 

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